Scientists wary of Bird Flu pandemic ‘Unfolding in slow motion’
In a recent series of interviews conducted by Reuters, leading disease experts have expressed growing concern over the surveillance gaps that may hinder efforts to curb the potential spread of a new bird flu pandemic. Since 2020, researchers have been closely monitoring a new subtype of H5N1 avian flu in migratory birds. However, the virus’s recent spread to 129 dairy herds across 12 U.S. states has raised alarms among experts, indicating a possible step closer to human transmissibility.
Scott Hensley, a microbiology professor at the University of Pennsylvania, likened the situation to a pandemic unfolding slowly, stressing that although the current threat remains low, circumstances could rapidly change.
Effective early warning systems are crucial for initiating preemptive measures such as vaccine development, widespread testing, and containment protocols. However, experts highlighted significant deficiencies in current surveillance efforts. Surveillance of U.S. dairy cows is primarily limited to testing herds before interstate travel, with inconsistent efforts at the state level and minimal testing of individuals exposed to sick cattle.
Dutch virologist Ron Fouchier emphasized the need for detailed data on infected farms and transmission dynamics to effectively combat the virus. Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo from the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases echoed concerns, describing human flu surveillance as “very, very limited” and criticizing the passive nature of current reporting mechanisms.
The discord between animal and human health agencies was also noted as potentially hampering a swift response. Gigi Gronvall from Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security suggested that a unified agency would streamline efforts to address cross-species health threats effectively.
In response to these concerns, a USDA spokesperson assured ongoing collaboration with the CDC and other agencies in a comprehensive response effort. The CDC emphasized its long-term preparedness but acknowledged the need for vigilant monitoring and quick response capabilities.
Despite reassurances, experts cautioned against complacency, drawing parallels with past pandemics like the 2009 H1N1 outbreak, which underscored the importance of enhanced surveillance and preparedness.
Currently, there have been isolated cases of H5N1 infections in humans, primarily linked to contact with infected cattle. Although the World Health Organization has assessed the current risk to humans as low, it highlighted the availability of limited vaccines and antiviral treatments should the situation escalate.
Looking ahead, organizations such as the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) are actively preparing for potential outbreaks, aiming to accelerate vaccine development within 100 days of an emergence.
In conclusion, while measures are being taken to mitigate the risks posed by H5N1, experts advocate for proactive surveillance and a coordinated international response to effectively combat any potential pandemic threat. As virologist Wendy Barclay cautioned, it is essential to strike a balance between preparedness and overreaction in addressing this evolving public health challenge.
