La Nina is becoming less likely, Australia’s weather bureau says
Australia’s weather bureau announced on Tuesday that the likelihood of a La Nina weather event developing in the coming months has significantly decreased. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) stated that if La Nina were to occur, it is expected to be weak and short-lived.
In its latest two-weekly update, the BOM revealed that its internal climate model indicates that a La Nina event is unlikely, with four out of six surveyed climate models now aligning with this assessment. La Nina, characterized by cooler sea surface temperatures off the western coast of South America, typically brings increased rainfall to eastern Australia, Southeast Asia, and India, while reducing precipitation in the Americas.
“If a La Nina were to develop, it is forecast to be relatively weak and short-lived, with all models indicating neutral conditions by February,” the bureau stated.
Additionally, confidence among meteorologists regarding the formation of a La Nina has waned. A U.S. government forecaster previously estimated a 60% chance of a La Nina emerging by the end of November, down from a 71% chance just a month earlier.
The changing weather patterns are crucial for global agriculture, as they can influence crop yields and water availability across different regions. The BOM’s latest insights will be closely monitored by farmers and policymakers alike as they prepare for the upcoming growing season.
