Japan’s ruling party faces majority challenge ahead of snap election
As Japan approaches its snap election on October 27, recent media polling indicates that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may struggle to maintain its majority in the lower house. According to the Nikkei newspaper, the LDP is projected to fall short of the 233 seats required for an outright majority in the 465-seat chamber.
The LDP has controlled the lower house since regaining power in 2012 after a brief period in opposition. A separate poll conducted by Jiji Press from October 11 to 14 revealed that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s cabinet has seen its approval rating drop to 28%, the lowest for any new government since 2000.
Currently reliant on its coalition partner Komeito for a majority in the upper house, the LDP may need to extend this reliance to the lower house to remain in power. This potential shift could enhance Komeito’s influence in policymaking, particularly on contentious security issues. Michael Cucek, a political expert at Temple University in Tokyo, noted that if the LDP must depend on Komeito to secure a majority, it would empower a party that has historically resisted some of the LDP’s more aggressive military policies.
Komeito, supported by Japan’s largest Buddhist lay organization, has been cautious about endorsing proposals such as extending the range of Japan’s military capabilities and lifting restrictions on arms exports, which would allow Japan to assist nations like Ukraine and Southeast Asian countries facing threats from China.
In the backdrop, Nobuyuki Baba, leader of the Japan Innovation Party—the third-largest party in the lower house—has expressed a willingness to collaborate with the LDP post-election, advocating for an expansion of Japan’s military capabilities and amendments to the pacifist constitution.
Polling data from a survey conducted by Nikkei and Yomiuri, which involved responses from over 165,000 individuals, along with additional insights from a TBS survey indicating a potential loss of around 30 seats for the LDP, underscores the challenges ahead for the ruling party.
Ishiba, who took office last month following the resignation of Fumio Kishida amidst public dissatisfaction related to funding scandals, dissolved the lower house on October 9 to call for the election. With uncertainties looming, the upcoming vote could reshape Japan’s political landscape significantly.
