Japan’s government in flux after election gives no party majority
The composition of Japan’s future government was thrown into turmoil on Monday after voters dealt a significant blow to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s scandal-ridden ruling coalition. The results leave no party with a clear mandate to govern the world’s fourth-largest economy.
The electoral fallout saw the yen fall to a three-month low as analysts braced for a prolonged period of political maneuvering to establish a new government, amid pressing economic challenges and a precarious security landscape influenced by an assertive China and a nuclear-capable North Korea.
Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, secured 215 seats in the lower house of parliament, a sharp decline from 279 seats. This decline was attributed to public discontent over a funding scandal and escalating cost-of-living concerns. Notably, two cabinet ministers and Komeito leader Keiichi Ishii lost their seats in the election.
The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), emerged as the biggest victor, increasing its seat count from 98 to 148, yet still falling short of the 233 seats needed for a majority.
In accordance with the Japanese constitution, the parties now have 30 days to negotiate a governing coalition. Analysts predict that Ishiba, who took office less than a month ago, may struggle to retain his position following this electoral defeat. Smaller parties, such as the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and the Japan Innovation Party, which won 28 and 38 seats respectively, may play a crucial role in these negotiations.
Tobias Harris, founder of Japan Foresight, noted, “It seems unlikely that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will survive to lead a new government,” although he could potentially remain as a caretaker leader.
Ishiba is scheduled to address the media at 2 p.m. today. Prior to the election, the LDP had aimed to convene parliament on November 7 to confirm the prime minister, according to reports from Japanese media outlets.
CDPJ leader Yoshihiko Noda expressed intentions to collaborate with other parties to remove the incumbents, though experts view this as a challenging prospect given the current electoral landscape.
This election marks a particularly low point for the LDP, which has dominated Japanese politics for most of the post-war era, and its worst electoral performance since briefly losing power in 2009 to a precursor of the CDPJ.
Despite initial optimism following Ishiba’s election, public support waned due to lingering resentment over a scandal involving unreported donations to LDP lawmakers. While the LDP attempted to distance itself from several scandal-tainted candidates, reports surfaced just before the election indicating that campaign funds had been allocated to branches led by non-endorsed candidates, prompting widespread media coverage and public criticism.
The potential for cooperation with smaller parties could be critical for the LDP’s survival. While DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki has not ruled out collaboration, Japan Innovation Party head Nobuyuki Baba has dismissed such an alliance. Both parties propose policies that challenge the LDP’s stance, including calls for significant tax cuts and criticism of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy.
In a rare positive development, a record 73 women were elected to Japan’s parliament, surpassing the previous record of 54 set in 2009.
As the nation navigates these tumultuous political waters, the business community is watching closely. Masakazu Tokura, head of Japan’s leading business lobby Keidanren, emphasized the need for a stable government to tackle urgent economic challenges, including energy security and wage growth.
