For the second consecutive year, China has registered a decrease in its population.
According to data released on Wednesday, the population stood at 1.409 billion at the close of 2023, reflecting a decrease of 2.08 million from 2022.
This decline is twice the magnitude of the previous year, marking the first population drop in 60 years. Experts attribute this decrease to the expanding urban class and a record-low birth rate, which, as of Wednesday, is reported to be 6.39 per 1,000 people—aligned with rates in other advanced East Asian nations like Japan and South Korea.
China has witnessed declining birth rates for decades, initially instigated by the controversial one-child policy in the 1980s to address overpopulation. Although the government lifted the policy in 2015 and introduced various incentives such as subsidies to encourage family-building, the impact has been limited. In 2021, restrictions were further relaxed to permit couples to have up to three children. Despite these efforts, factors like the cost of living and career priorities, particularly in the aftermath of a three-year period affected by Covid, continue to deter young people in modern cities from starting families
Wang Chengyi, a 31-year-old woman in Beijing, shared, “My husband and I do want to have a kid, but we can’t afford it for now.” She explained that they need to save money for another three years, considering the specific financial demands, especially school expenses, associated with having a child.
Expressing her desire to conceive while still young for health reasons, she lamented, “However, I just don’t have enough money for now, so I have to postpone. It’s a shame, and I feel panic over it sometimes.”
Experts noted on Wednesday that the pandemic has played a role in hastening the decline in new births. However, they emphasized that underlying economic challenges are a more significant contributing factor.
Experts suggest that China is following the trend of other nations that have undergone rapid deindustrialization, albeit at an accelerated pace. Professor Stuart Gietel-Basten, a population policy expert at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, notes that this trajectory is unsurprising due to China’s exceptionally low fertility rates, resulting in a shift from population growth to decline.
Gietel-Basten asserts that this trend is now firmly established, marking the beginning of a new era characterized by either stagnant or declining population for China. The country’s economic challenges became prominent in 2023, grappling with a widespread property crisis, decreased consumer spending, and a record-high youth unemployment rate in the aftermath of the pandemic.
Recent annual data confirmed these struggles, revealing one of the slowest economic growth rates in over three decades. China’s GDP expanded by 5.2% to reach 126 trillion yuan ($17.5tn; £13.8tn) in 2023, marking the weakest performance since 1990 (excluding pandemic years). Concurrently, the youth unemployment rate for December was reported at 14.1%, following a peak of 21.3% in June, after which China temporarily suspended releasing monthly figures.
This latest population data is likely to heighten concerns about the economy, given China’s historical reliance on an aging workforce as a primary economic driver. The country is grappling with growing pressure on its healthcare and pension systems as the retiree population is projected to increase by 60% to 400 million by 2035.
Despite these challenges, experts believe that China has the time and resources to manage the workforce transition successfully. The country, like others that have deindustrialized, is expected to see a more educated, skilled, and healthier population transitioning from traditional industrial jobs to service-sector employment. The Chinese government has reportedly been planning for this shift over the past decade, indicating a continued direction in this transformative process.
Once the world’s most populous nation, China was surpassed by India in the previous year, with the UN reporting India’s population at 1.425 billion.
